Multi-Asset State + Forecast + Sentiment + Yield Curve + Regime + Risk Intelligence

JKM Terminal | Macro Intelligence Dashboard

Forecasts.org Multi-Asset State + Forecast Intelligence + Sentiment + Cross-Asset Correlation + Yield Curve Lab + Regime Engine + Risk Monitor

Series: 62

Forecasted: 62

Categories: 13

Obs: 4278

Regime: Reflation

Cycle: Mid Cycle

Sentiment: Greed

Inversions: 0/36

Recession: 50%

8-State Regime

Reflation

Mid Cycle phase

Risk Assets YoY

+9.6%

Equity complex pulse

Inflation YoY

-1.9%

Inflation pulse

Growth YoY

-56.3%

Growth pulse

Recession Prob

50%

6-month forward

Macro Breadth

62%

% series advancing

🟡 Correlation: S&P 500/US 10Y Treasury correlation shifted from 0.45 to 0.03

Primary Macro Series

Category Summary

Category	Series	Avg YoY	Avg Forecast	Regime
Rates	13	-8.14%	-10.81%	Rates Easing
FX	8	+0.40%	-0.43%	Mixed
Growth	6	-56.30%	-25.49%	Growth Improving
Global Equities	5	+9.94%	+8.35%	Neutral Risk
Commodities	5	+1.79%	-16.86%	Commodity Mixed
Liquidity	5	+5.43%	+3.27%	Liquidity Expanding
Inflation	5	-1.88%	-1.45%	Disinflation
Risk Assets	5	+9.22%	+10.34%	Neutral Risk
Housing	3	-0.81%	-4.28%	Mixed
Demand	2	+8.40%	+5.59%	Mixed
Labor	2	+3.21%	+5.63%	Labor Mixed
Trade	2	+3.77%	+3.89%	Mixed
Investment	1	+7.18%	+5.41%	Mixed

YoY Heatmap

Direction Mix

Macro Intelligence Narrative

The macro environment is currently classified as Reflation, with the business cycle in the Mid Cycle phase. Risk assets are averaging +9.6% YoY, while growth indicators show -56.3% YoY momentum. Inflation has moderated to -1.9% YoY, providing room for policy accommodation. The yield curve is fully positive (no inversions), a constructive signal. Recession probability is moderate at 50%, warranting heightened vigilance. Forward sentiment (49.5) trails current sentiment (60.8) by 11.3 points, signaling fading macro strength ahead. The forward macro regime is classified as Forward Disinflation Slowdown.

Latest Macro Snapshot

Series	Category	Latest	MoM	6M	YoY	Z	Direction	Regime

Curve Inversions

0 / 36

Inverted segments

2s10s Spread

—

Classic recession indicator

3m10y Spread

—

Fed vs market

Avg Yield Level

—

All-tenor average

Yield Curve | Current vs Forecast

Curve Decomposition

Inversion Breadth Over Time

Forecast Curve Delta (bps)

Yield Curve Narrative

The average yield level across all tenors is 3.48%. The 2s10s spread is +1bps, indicating a normally sloped curve. Forecasted curve changes: 3M: -54bps, 6M: -51bps, 1Y: -44bps, 2Y: -46bps, 3Y: -40bps, 5Y: -45bps, 7Y: -45bps, 10Y: -49bps, 30Y: -52bps.

Correlation Heatmap

Relative Strength Ranking

Current vs Forward Category Matrix

Cross-Asset Table

Category	Series	Avg YoY	Avg Forecast	Interpretation

Current 8-State Regime

Reflation

Growth × Inflation × Liquidity

Business Cycle Phase

Mid Cycle

Classical phase mapping

Forward Regime

Forward Disinflation Slowdown

Forecast-implied path

Regime History

Transition Probability Matrix

Forward Regime

Forward Disinflation Slowdown

Forecast composite

Forecasted Series

With forward path

Avg Forecast Δ

-4.1%

Actual → endpoint

Forecast Upside/Downside

Horizon vs Change

Forecast Bias Mix

Forward Heatmap

Forecast Transition Monitor

Series	Category	Actual	Forecast End	Expected Δ	Annualized	Months	Window	Bias

Stress Index

34/100

Macro stress thermometer

Recession Probability

50%

6-month forward

FCI Z-Score

0.15

Financial conditions

Macro Breadth

62%

% advancing

Stress Index

Recession Probability

Financial Conditions Index

Macro Breadth Index

Inflation Momentum Index

Current Sentiment

61/100

Greed

Forward Sentiment

50/100

Balanced

Gap

-11.3

Forward minus Current

JKM Terminal | Macro Intelligence Dashboard

Primary Macro Series

Category Summary

YoY Heatmap

Direction Mix

Macro Intelligence Narrative

Latest Macro Snapshot

Yield Curve | Current vs Forecast

Curve Decomposition

Inversion Breadth Over Time

Forecast Curve Delta (bps)

Yield Curve Narrative

Correlation Heatmap

Relative Strength Ranking

Current vs Forward Category Matrix

Cross-Asset Table

Regime History

Transition Probability Matrix

Forecast Upside/Downside

Horizon vs Change

Forecast Bias Mix

Forward Heatmap

Forecast Transition Monitor

Stress Index

Recession Probability

Financial Conditions Index

Macro Breadth Index

Inflation Momentum Index

Current Sentiment Gauge

Forward Sentiment Gauge

Current Components

Forward Components

Series Selector

Selected Series Summary

Selected Series | Actual vs Forecast